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The Singularity Report

The Singularity Report

Editor · David Solheim

A paper of record for the Great Transition — the Singularity, ASI, and exponential growth.

ASI Arrival Clock · TSR

2026earliest2030central2033

Last revised
21 October 2026, 01:00 UTC
Direction
sooner
Why
Published recursive-improvement eval moved a named threshold.
How the clock moves
Methodology

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SemantEq-Eval, a search without a model, reaches 100% precision and 65.6% recall on the ProofNetVerif test split under our adjudicated labels, against 95.8% and 61.8% for BEq+, and an 8.9-fold increase in its CPU time adds at most three pairs. It comes from a paper posted to arXiv on 26 October 2026. Statement autoformalization translates mathematics from natural language into a proof assistant such as Lean 4, and models now do it at scale. As provers get stronger, the burden of correctness shifts from the proof to the statement, that is, to whether the formal statement faithfully translates its source. Given a trusted reference formalization, the natural test is logical equivalence, and it proves too much. $P \leftrightarrow Q$ holds trivially for any two statements $P$ and $Q$ that the library proves, because a prover can prove each separately and pass through $P \leftrightarrow \mathrm{True} \leftrightarrow Q$. The stronger the prover, the more unrelated pairs pass. Earlier methods restrict the prover and check that each proof names the other statement. We introduce SemantEq, a more principled relation that instead requires each statement to turn into the other only through a chain of allowed steps, such as logical rearrangement and rewriting with the library's own equations. Our programs judge a proof by the proof term Lean checks, not by its tactic script. A language model finds more proofs, but under two of four prompts it proves both directions of about two in five of the non-equivalent pairs. SemantEq-ProofAudit audits each model-written proof under a policy derived from the relation and accepts none of the 104 non-equivalent pairs, and it raises recall on 407 equivalent pairs from 65.4% to 81.1% under the best prompt. Separating the generation of equivalence proofs from their acceptance lets a stronger prover raise recall without changing what an acceptance means. We release code and data at: https://github.com/hlxr89/SemantEq

Why it counts

SemantEq-Eval, a search without a model, reaches 100% precision and 65.6% recall on the ProofNetVerif test split under our adjudicated labels, against 95.8% and 61.8% for BEq+, and an 8.9-fold increase in its CPU time adds at most three pairs.

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What is not known

This brief does not claim independent replication. Claims that appear only on X and not in the primary source stay unknown.

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